Post‐glacial history and introgression in Abies (Pinaceae) species of the Russian Far East inferred from both nuclear and cytoplasmic markers

Aim The main aim of the present study is to infer the post‐glacial history of Abies species from north‐east Asia and to test the hypotheses that coastal Abies populations suffered less from climatic fluctuations during Pleistocene glacial periods than their more continental counterparts, and that Sakhalin was a major area of introgression. Location Natural ranges of the fir species Abies nephrolepis, Abies sachalinensis and Abies holophylla in the Russian Far East, and of Abies gracilis, which is endemic to the Kamchatka Peninsula. Methods Nineteen populations were sampled for allozyme analysis. Seventeen of these populations were also screened for variation at two paternally inherited chloroplast DNA microsatellite loci (cpSSR) and variation at one maternally inherited mitochondrial marker (nad4‐3/4). Finally a subset of 11 populations was analysed with amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP). Comparisons were made with already available Abies sibirica data. For all sets of markers, we estimated genetic diversity and differentiation using an analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA). Population clustering was assessed with a Bayesian approach implemented in structure v.2.3. Results Among the three major species, A. sibirica, A. nephrolepis and A. sachalinensis, A. sachalinensis demonstrated the highest cytoplasmic and nuclear diversity and the most continental species, A. sibirica, the lowest. Both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA markers revealed the presence of a transitional zone on Sakhalin Island between A. nephrolepis and A. sachalinensis of south Sakhalin. The structure analysis delivered very clear results confirming the admixed origin of A. sachalinensis, with a genetic contribution from A. nephrolepis. No variation in cytoplasmic markers was found in A. gracilis, suggesting the occurrence of a recent bottleneck. Main conclusions There is a clear reduction of genetic diversity in Abies species from the Pacific coast into the continent. The higher diversity in A. sachalinensis could have two causes: a larger effective population size in the islands due to relatively stable climatic conditions and consequently less pronounced demographic fluctuations in population size and/or hybridization with continental and Japanese populations. Sakhalin Island is a major transitional zone for conifer species. Finally, the fir from Kamchatka, A. gracilis, should be regarded as a separate species closely related to the A. nephrolepis–A. sachalinensis complex.     

Reproductive life history of ocelotsLeopardus pardalis in southern Texas

The ocelotLeopardus pardalis Linnaeus, 1758 is an endangered felid in the United States currently restricted to southern Texas. The objectives of our study were to obtain data on ocelot parturition dates, fecundity, sex ratios, den characteristics, and first year survival, all of which are critical in development of population viability models. Sixteen parturition events were recorded ranging from mid-April to late December for 12 wild ocelots. Cumulatively, litters consisted of 1 or 2 kittens (ˉ = 1.2 ± 0.44 SD). Cumulative sex ratio was 1∶2.5 (male:female); however, there was no significant difference between the observed sex ratio and a 1∶1 sex ratio. Ten den sites were in close proximity (≤ 10 m) to dense thornshrub. Adult female ocelots used 2 to 4 den sites for each litter with distance between consecutively occupied dens ranging from 110 to 280 m (ˉ = 158 m ± 93 SD). An estimated annual survival for ocelots 0 to 1 year of age was 0.68. Evidence suggests that ocelots in the wild may breed more frequently than had been previously hypothesized.     

A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.